Final Pulication 6292

STATISTICS OF INCOME DIVISION
RESEARCH, APPLIED ANALYTICS, AND STATISTICS

Publication 6292

Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United
States: 2021–2028

Spring 2021

Projections

of Federal Tax Return Filings

w w w.ir s.gov/st atistic s
Publication 6292 (Rev. 6-2021) Catalog Number 59069P Department of the Treasury Internal Revenue Service www.irs.gov/statistics

Publication 6292 (revised 6-2021) is a product of the IRS Statistics of Income Division
within the Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics organization.

Department of the Treasury
Internal Revenue Service
Charles P. Rettig
Commissioner
Jeffrey J. Tribiano
Deputy Commissioner for Operations Support
Barry W. Johnson
Acting Chief Research and Analytics Officer
Barry W. Johnson
Director, Statistics of Income Division
Laura R. Rasmussen
Chief, Statistical Services Branch
Timothy S. Castle
Chief, Servicewide Support Section

Fiscal Year Return
Projections for
the United States:
2021–2028

Publication 6292
Spring 2021

Suggested Citation
Internal Revenue Service
Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics
Statistics of Income Division
Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United States
Publication 6292 (Rev. 6-2021)
Washington, D.C. 20224

Table of Contents
(Spring 2021)

Principal Contacts...................................................................................................................... iii
Online Availability of Forecasts................................................................................................... iii
Overview.....................................................................................................................................1
Data Sources and Projections Methodology...............................................................................1
Summary of Significant Trends...................................................................................................2
Accuracy of Prior Projections......................................................................................................3
Table 1.	 Fiscal Year Projections of the Number of Returns To Be Filed with
	
IRS, 2021–2028............................................................................................................4
Table 2.	 Selected Fiscal Year Return Filing Estimates by Business Operating
	
Division (BOD), 2021–2028..........................................................................................6
Table 3.	 Accuracy Measures for U.S. Forecasts of Major Return Categories............................7
Table Notes.................................................................................................................................8
Projection Publication Series.....................................................................................................10

(ii)

Principal Contacts
Questions or comments regarding these return forecasts, or related matters, can be directed to
the corresponding staff member listed below.
Business Returns

Jeff Matsuo
Michelle Chu
Derrick Dennis
Yan K. Liu

(202) 803-9363
(202) 803-9369
(202) 803-9337
(202) 803-9357

Individual Returns (Estimated Tax,
Extensions, and Amended)

Yan K. Liu
Sisay Saikouba
Derrick Dennis
Andy J. Roche
Michelle Chu

(202) 803-9357
(202) 803-9274
(202) 803-9337
(202) 803-9334
(202) 803-9369

Other Comments or Questions

Michelle Chu
Yan K. Liu

(202) 803-9369
(202) 803-9357

Online Availability of Forecasts
Forecasts from the most recent edition of this publication may be found on the IRS Internet site.
The World Wide Web address is: www.irs.gov/statistics. From the Website, select “All Topics” in
the “Products, Publications & Papers” section.

We thank our customers for their support as we continually seek to improve our products
and services wherever possible. We welcome customer feedback at any time. Comments
and suggestions regarding this publication can be directed to Timothy Castle, Chief, Servicewide Support Section, at (202) 803-9106.

Barry W. Johnson
Director, Statistics of Income Division

(iii)

Overview
The Spring 2021 edition of IRS Publication 6292, Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United
States, provides U.S.-level projections of the number of tax returns expected to be filed in Fiscal
Year (FY) 2021 through FY 2028 by: (1) major return categories; and (2) business operating
divisions.
Statistics of Income (SOI) staff within the IRS Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics (RAAS)
organization prepare these projections semiannually to incorporate changes in filing patterns,
economic and demographic trends, legislative requirements, and IRS administrative processes.

Data Sources and Projections Methodology
IRS Data Sources
To develop projections for FY 2021 through FY 2028, SOI staff relied on data from the IRS
Master File, which reports the historical number of returns processed and recorded each year.
In cases where master file return counts were not available, SOI staff relied on data provided by
program staff in the IRS operating divisions.
General Projections Methodology
SOI staff computed the projections presented here for the calendar year of filing, and then converted them to the corresponding fiscal year based on the historical quarterly filing experience.
For some individual return series, SOI staff computed the projections based on quarterly historical data and then derived the fiscal year projections by adding the relevant four quarters.
The projections are derived from various statistical models that capture and extrapolate historical filing trends by unique form types and filing mediums. Most of the models use time series
extrapolation methods, such as trended exponential smoothing. However, the projections for
some return types are based on regression models that used the April 2021 economic and demographic variables provided by IHS Markit as key input factors. Additionally, where historical
data were limited or nonexistent, such as for new e-file products, the filing pattern for a comparable return type was applied.
Adjustments Related to Implications from COVID-19 Pandemic
SOI staff performed an extensive research of U.S. laws and the IRS administrative processes
that will impact the FY 2021 to FY 2028 tax return volumes. The staff’s biggest challenges were
determining how to deal with the tax provisions of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act of 2020 and American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (e.g., the effect of Recovery
Rebate Credits on filer behavior) and how to account for the backlog of paper returns that were
not processed in 2020 because of the IRS campus closures. Based on the SOI staff’s research
and the available 2021 filing season data as of early-May 2021, staff made appropriate adjustments to some of its modeled forecasts.
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic led to the temporary closures of the IRS processing
centers in 2020. As a result, some of the paper returns that were received in 2020 could not be
processed and had to be carried over into 2021 for processing. This is evident in most of the
2020 actual paper volumes presented in this publication which are lower than expected based
on the historical trends. SOI staff adjusted the 2021 paper estimates to account for these carryover returns that were received in 2020 but processed in 2021.
(1)

New Electronic Filing Option for Form 1040-X
On May 28, 2020, the IRS announced that taxpayers could submit an Amended U.S. Individual
Income Tax Return (Form 1040-X) electronically using commercial tax-filing software. As e-filing
has grown in the past 30 years, the Form 1040-X was one of the last major individual tax forms
required to be filed on paper before August 2020.
To develop the initial projections for the new electronic Form 1040-X filing option, SOI staff
researched past scenarios and taxpayer filing behavior patterns following the IRS launch of a
new e-file option for other forms. The behavior observed and the number of returns submitted
electronically when past e-file options first became available is reflected in the projections of
electronic Form 1040-X returns. Actual Free File data from 2020 and year-to-date 2021 have a more
significant role in this year’s update of the electronic Form 1040-X forecasts.
The Impact of Taxpayer First Act
The Taxpayer First Act (TFA), enacted on July 1, 2019, made filing electronically a more widespread practice for business taxpayers. Two of the TFA provisions directly affect the forecasts
provided in this publication. First, the TFA lowers the thresholds needed for corporations and
partnerships to file electronically starting in CY 2021. Second, the TFA makes electronic filing
mandatory for exempt organizations (Form 990 series) and political organizations (Form 8872)
starting in CY 2021, with a temporary waiver for small business filers. Both provisions will increase the number of electronic filings for the various forms and will either decrease, or eliminate
altogether, the amount of paper filings.

Summary of Significant Trends
A summary of the major trends for this edition of Publication 6292 are noted below:
Trends in the Grand Total Return Filings
As presented in Table 1, the grand total return filings were 242.1 million in FY 2020, a decrease
of 5.2 percent over FY 2019. This is largely due to the backlog of individual tax returns filed by
paper and other types of taxpayer account work that IRS was unable to process in 2020 due to
the IRS campus closures. The paper grand total return filings were 46.4 million in FY 2020, a
decrease of 33.9 percent from the FY 2019 total.
The IRS is currently processing the paper backlog, along with processing the tax returns filed
in 2021, which will impact the FY 2021 count of overall paper returns (a projected 47.3-percent
increase in FY 2021 compared to FY 2020). However, the volume of overall paper returns is expected to return to its normal declining trend in FY 2022, with an expected count of 60.0 million.
After FY 2022, paper grand total returns are projected to decline by an average annual rate of
4.1 percent. Over the same time, grand total return filings are projected to grow at an average
annual rate of 1.1 percent, reaching 280.1 million by FY 2028.
In contrast to paper returns, the electronic grand total return filings were 195.7 million in FY
2020, an increase of 5.7 percent over FY 2019. The volume of electronic grand total returns in
FY 2021 is expected to be similar to the volume in FY 2020, with an expected count of approximately 195.7 million filings. After FY 2021, electronic grand total return filings are projected to
grow at an average annual rate of 2.5 percent.
(2)

Detail by Business Operating Division
Table 2 presents estimates of selected return filings by IRS Business Operating Division (BOD).
The selected returns include total individual income tax returns, corporation income tax returns,
partnership returns, employment returns, excise tax returns, and exempt organization returns.
As applicable, these volumes are broken out by their operating division components: Wage and
Investment (W&I), Small Business/Self-Employed (SB/SE), Large Business and International
(LB&I), and Tax Exempt/Government Entities (TE/GE). Also included are the projected total
filings of employee plan (EP) returns, including those processed by the Department of Labor,
which comprise major return filings by taxpayers served by the TE/GE operating division.

Accuracy of Prior Projections
To measure the quality of our products and services, this section, along with Table 3, provides
a brief analysis of the accuracy of prior projections. Using 4 years of actual data, from 2017
through 2020, Table 3 presents the accuracy of our national-level projections by major return
categories. This analysis covers only the major return categories projected on a calendar-year
basis and serves as a general measure for approximating the overall reliability of our U.S.-level
return projections.
The table presents two measures of projection accuracy: (1) the mean absolute percent error
(MAPE); and (2) the number of overprojections. The MAPE is computed as the average percentage projection error for the 4-year period, regardless of whether the projections were over or
under the actual filings in each of the four projection cycles. In addition, the number of overprojections can show whether projections are consistently over- or underprojected. A value of “2”
indicates balanced forecasts over the four cycles.
The table groups these two measures by time horizon. The time horizon is determined based on
the year a forecast was made and the year projected. For example, a forecast for 2019 made in
2016 would be part of the “3-years-ahead” time horizon.

(3)

Table 1. Fiscal Year Projections of the Number of Returns To Be Filed with IRS, 2021–2028
Type of Return

Grand Total
Paper Grand Total

Projected

Actual—
FY 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

242,093,672

263,977,600

262,280,900

265,317,500

268,193,600

271,146,200

274,159,100

2028
(9)

277,094,400

280,067,800

46,356,302

68,283,200

59,973,300

56,752,100

54,498,300

52,376,900

50,404,900

48,538,200

46,787,200

195,737,370

195,694,300

202,307,700

208,565,400

213,695,400

218,769,300

223,754,200

228,556,200

233,280,600

Total Primary Returns

220,529,050

233,088,700

232,472,500

234,871,000

236,999,000

239,145,000

241,291,100

243,358,700

245,457,700

Individual Income Tax, Total

157,195,302

160,331,100

160,066,900

162,759,000

164,534,000

166,329,300

168,215,800

170,039,500

171,848,200

156,580,123

159,406,100

159,115,000

161,775,700

163,528,800

165,303,400

167,169,100

168,972,100

8,468,113

17,225,100

13,221,700

12,400,100

11,603,100

10,857,300

10,159,400

9,506,400

8,895,400

148,112,010

142,181,000

145,893,300

149,375,600

151,925,700

154,446,100

157,009,700

159,465,600

161,864,500

Electronic Grand Total

Forms 1040, 1040-SP, and 1040-SR, Total
Paper Forms 1040, 1040-SP, and 1040-SR
Electronic Forms 1040, 1040-SP, and 1040-SR
Forms 1040-NR/NR-EZ/C
Electronic Form 1040-NR
Forms 1040-PR and 1040-SS
Electronic Forms 1040-PR and 1040-SS
Individual Estimated Tax, Form 1040-ES, Total
Paper Form 1040-ES
Electronic (Credit Card) Form 1040-ES
Fiduciary, Form 1041, Total
Paper Form 1041
Electronic Form 1041
Fiduciary Estimated Tax, Form 1041-ES
Partnership, Forms 1065/1065-B, Total
Paper Forms 1065/1065-B
Electronic Forms 1065/1065-B
Corporation Income Tax, Total
Paper Corporation Returns, Total

170,759,900

546,572

788,100

825,000

862,000

889,300

915,600

941,800

968,100

994,400

288,438

431,100

473,400

515,600

557,900

600,100

642,400

684,700

726,900

68,607

136,900

126,900

121,400

115,900

110,400

104,900

99,400

93,900

45,296

39,300

39,100

39,000

38,900

38,700

38,600

38,500

38,400

17,579,898

19,137,300

19,300,900

19,626,000

19,520,600

19,415,100

19,309,700

19,204,300

19,132,100

17,392,950

18,854,400

19,003,200

19,313,600

19,193,400

19,073,200

18,953,100

18,833,000

18,746,000

186,948

282,900

297,700

312,400

327,200

341,900

356,600

371,400

386,100

2,820,317

3,038,200

3,034,700

3,002,700

2,973,300

2,946,400

2,921,900

2,899,500

2,879,200

185,826

358,600

351,800

317,100

285,800

257,400

231,700

208,500

187,500

2,634,491

2,679,600

2,682,900

2,685,500

2,687,500

2,689,000

2,690,100

2,691,000

2,691,700

633,707

652,600

653,500

653,500

653,500

653,500

653,500

653,500

653,500

4,470,095

4,578,200

4,806,100

5,002,900

5,211,700

5,429,000

5,551,400

5,662,800

5,776,800

184,687

344,700

318,600

264,100

223,700

193,700

173,200

156,800

144,600

4,285,408

4,233,500

4,487,400

4,738,900

4,988,100

5,235,300

5,378,200

5,506,000

5,632,200

6,841,771

7,296,300

7,453,700

7,510,000

7,562,100

7,612,500

7,660,900

7,707,200

7,751,200

697,421

944,400

951,000

877,200

815,000

762,500

718,100

680,400

648,500

Electronic Corporation Returns, Total

6,144,350

6,352,000

6,502,600

6,632,800

6,747,100

6,850,000

6,942,800

7,026,800

7,102,700

Form 1120, Total

1,595,515

1,688,800

1,725,900

1,712,500

1,696,600

1,681,400

1,667,100

1,653,800

1,641,600

Paper Form 1120
Electronic Form 1120

193,948

250,600

271,800

250,500

231,200

213,800

198,000

183,700

170,800

1,401,567

1,438,200

1,454,100

1,462,000

1,465,300

1,467,600

1,469,100

1,470,100

1,470,800

Form 1120-C

5,778

3,300

3,300

3,300

3,300

3,300

3,300

3,300

3,300

Form 1120-F

44,592

50,400

54,900

55,800

56,700

57,600

58,400

59,300

60,100

12,423

14,600

16,900

15,900

15,000

14,300

13,800

13,300

12,900

Paper Form 1120-F
Electronic Form 1120-F
Form 1120-H
Forms 1120-FSC/L/ND/PC/REIT/RIC/SF
Form 1120-S, Total
Paper Form 1120-S

32,169

35,800

38,000

39,900

41,700

43,200

44,700

46,000

47,200

123,896

247,900

269,700

271,900

274,200

276,400

278,600

280,800

283,100

27,687

34,600

48,200

48,500

48,900

49,200

49,600

49,900

50,200

5,044,303

5,271,300

5,351,700

5,418,000

5,482,500

5,544,700

5,603,900

5,660,100

5,712,900

333,689

393,300

341,100

287,000

242,400

205,500

174,800

149,400

128,100

4,710,614

4,878,000

5,010,600

5,131,000

5,240,100

5,339,200

5,429,100

5,510,700

5,584,800

391,234

489,500

462,100

462,100

462,100

462,100

462,100

462,100

462,100

"REMIC" Income Tax, Form 1066

19,062

48,100

46,100

46,800

47,400

48,100

48,700

49,400

50,000

Estate, Forms 706, 706NA/GS(D)/GS(T), Total

15,023

16,000

14,900

14,000

13,200

12,500

11,800

11,100

Electronic Form 1120-S
Small Corporation Election, Form 2553

Gift, Form 709

10,500

158,095

240,800

234,900

234,900

234,900

234,900

234,900

234,900

234,900

28,002,543

34,148,600

33,195,600

32,386,100

32,564,900

32,736,500

32,904,700

33,071,300

33,241,400

Paper Employment Returns, Total

12,327,250

17,361,800

15,570,900

13,887,800

13,222,500

12,572,100

11,935,100

11,309,800

10,698,300

Electronic Employment Returns, Total

15,675,293

16,786,800

17,624,700

18,498,300

19,342,400

20,164,400

20,969,500

21,761,500

22,543,000

5,964,394

6,401,100

6,272,400

6,308,900

6,343,600

6,376,600

6,408,900

6,440,700

6,472,400

2,946,308

3,113,700

2,872,200

2,725,400

2,581,200

2,439,700

2,301,800

2,167,600

Employment Tax, Total

Forms 940, 940-EZ, and 940-PR, Total
Paper Forms 940, 940-EZ, and 940-PR
Form 940 E-File/Online/XML
Forms 941, 941-PR, and 941-SS, Total

2,037,400

3,018,086

3,287,400

3,400,200

3,583,500

3,762,400

3,936,900

4,107,100

4,273,100

4,435,000

21,761,825

27,453,300

26,647,900

25,813,200

25,967,400

26,116,000

26,261,900

26,406,600

26,554,800

Paper 941, 941-PR/SS, Total

9,129,683

13,981,600

12,453,900

10,932,100

10,424,100

9,928,200

9,442,300

8,964,000

8,495,700

Form 941 E-File/Online/XML

12,632,142

13,471,700

14,194,000

14,881,100

15,543,300

16,187,800

16,819,600

17,442,500

18,059,100

Forms 943, 943-PR, and 943-SS, Total

170,678

179,700

167,700

163,000

158,400

153,900

149,400

144,900

140,500

158,500

165,000

151,600

145,100

138,800

132,600

126,400

120,200

114,100

12,178

14,700

16,100

17,800

19,600

21,300

23,000

24,700

26,400

51,593

56,600

55,500

54,000

52,500

51,000

49,500

48,000

46,400

43,203

48,800

47,000

44,800

42,600

40,400

38,200

36,000

33,700

8,390

7,800

8,500

9,200

9,900

10,600

11,300

12,000

12,700

52,549

55,900

50,200

45,100

41,200

37,200

33,300

29,400

25,400

48,052

50,600

44,300

38,600

33,900

29,300

24,700

20,200

15,600

Electronic Form 945

4,497

5,300

5,900

6,600

7,200

7,900

8,500

9,200

9,800

Form CT-1
Footnotes are at end of table.

1,504

2,100

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,800

Paper Forms 943, 943-PR, and 943-SS
Electronic Forms 943, 943-PR, and 943-SS
Forms 944, 944-PR, and 944-SS, Total
Paper Forms 944, 944-PR, and 944-SS
Electronic Form 944
Form 945, Total
Paper Form 945

(4)

Table 1. Fiscal Year Projections of the Number of Returns To Be Filed with IRS, 2021–2028—Continued
Type of Return

Withholding on Foreign Persons, Form 1042
Exempt Organizations, Total
Paper Exempt Organizations, Total
Electronic Exempt Organizations, Total
Form 990, Total
Paper Form 990
Electronic Form 990
Form 990-EZ, Total
Paper Form 990-EZ
Electronic Form 990-EZ
Form 990-N*
Form 990-PF, Total
Paper Form 990-PF
Electronic Form 990-PF
Form 990-T**
Paper Form 990-T
Electronic Form 990-T
Form 4720***
Paper Form 4720
Electronic Form 4720
Form 5227
Form 1041-A
Government Entity/Bonds
Form 8038
Form 8038-CP
Form 8038-G
Form 8038-GC
Form 8038-T
Form 8038-TC
Form 8328
Political Organizations, Total
Form 1120-POL, Total
Paper Form 1120-POL
Electronic Form 1120-POL
Form 8871****
Form 8872, Total
Paper Form 8872
Electronic Form 8872
Excise, Total
Form 11-C
Form 720, Total
Paper Form 720
Electronic Form 720
Form 730
Form 2290, Total
Paper Form 2290
Electronic Form 2290
Form 8849, Total

Projected

Actual—
FY 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

2028
(9)

25,459

72,900

63,900

62,300

64,700

67,100

69,700

72,300

75,100

1,358,305

1,746,100

1,838,200

1,803,400

1,840,500

1,877,600

1,916,500

1,957,300

1,999,900

221,556

355,900

213,800

93,900

84,900

82,700

80,500

78,300

76,200

1,136,749

1,390,200

1,624,300

1,709,500

1,755,600

1,795,000

1,836,100

1,878,900

1,923,700

288,062

325,000

330,400

329,100

329,100

329,100

329,100

329,100

329,100

25,828

29,600

8,800

0

0

0

0

0

0

262,234

295,500

321,600

329,100

329,100

329,100

329,100

329,100

329,100

184,737

253,200

260,200

254,500

256,100

256,100

256,100

256,100

256,100

44,321

91,000

47,700

5,800

0

0

0

0

0

140,416

162,100

212,500

248,700

256,100

256,100

256,100

256,100

256,100

658,983

712,100

754,300

788,800

824,900

862,600

902,000

943,200

986,400

94,894

134,300

131,800

124,300

125,700

127,100

128,600

130,000

131,500

19,778

27,100

12,100

1,000

0

0

0

0

0

75,116

107,200

119,700

123,300

125,700

127,100

128,600

130,000

131,500

116,975

186,100

263,400

218,200

218,200

218,200

218,200

218,200

218,200

116,975

73,300

48,300

0

0

0

0

0

0

N/A

112,800

215,100

218,200

218,200

218,200

218,200

218,200

218,200

1,659

2,300

3,000

3,000

3,100

3,100

3,100

3,100

3,200

1,659

1,800

1,900

1,700

1,500

1,300

1,100

1,000

N/A

500

1,100

1,300

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,300

12,995

133,200

94,900

85,400

83,400

81,400

79,400

77,400

75,400

900

2,859

7,100

6,100

6,100

6,100

6,100

6,100

6,100

6,100

30,385

28,500

37,600

38,900

38,300

37,700

37,100

36,500

35,900

1,700

1,600

1,500

1,300

7,747

8,600

9,300

9,500

9,600

9,800

10,000

10,200

10,400

16,001

1,849

13,500

19,900

20,900

20,600

20,400

20,100

19,800

19,500

4,459

4,500

6,000

6,100

5,800

5,400

5,100

4,800

4,400

118

200

200

200

100

100

100

100

100

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

209

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

8,115

9,300

10,000

7,600

10,000

7,400

10,000

7,200

9,900

2,771

3,400

3,400

3,300

3,200

3,000

2,900

2,800

2,700

2,724

3,400

3,400

3,200

3,100

3,000

2,900

2,700

2,600

47

100

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2,930

3,000

3,300

2,200

3,400

2,200

3,500

2,200

3,600

2,414

1,600

3,000

2,000

3,300

2,000

2,200

1,900

3,400

2,200

3,500

2,200

3,600

232

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2,182

2,900

3,300

2,200

3,400

2,200

3,500

2,200

3,600

905,722

1,102,300

1,108,600

1,117,000

1,125,400

1,133,900

1,142,300

1,150,800

1,159,300

2,141

4,000

3,800

3,600

3,400

3,200

3,000

2,900

2,700

144,485

186,700

182,000

179,500

176,900

174,400

171,900

169,300

166,800

141,835

183,500

178,400

175,600

172,800

169,800

167,000

164,300

161,500

2,650

3,200

3,600

3,900

4,200

4,600

4,800

5,000

13,012

21,200

20,600

20,000

19,400

18,900

18,300

17,800

17,400

731,551

867,100

878,900

890,700

902,500

914,200

926,000

937,800

949,600

5,300

76,617

181,400

178,700

176,500

174,300

171,900

169,700

167,500

165,400

654,934

685,700

700,200

714,200

728,200

742,400

756,300

770,300

784,200

14,533

23,300

23,300

23,200

23,200

23,100

23,000

23,000

22,900

Paper Form 8849

8,952

17,300

17,100

16,800

16,600

16,300

16,100

15,800

15,600

Electronic Form 8849

5,581

6,000

6,200

6,400

6,600

6,800

7,000

7,100

7,300

Excise Taxes re Employee Plans, Form 5330

11,153

15,300

19,900

19,800

19,800

19,800

19,700

19,700

19,600

Form 5500-EZ, One-Participant Retirement Plans

53,134

106,600

96,500

96,500

96,500

96,500

96,500

96,500

96,500

Payment or Refund Under Sec. 7519, Form 8752

6,871

23,900

22,400

21,300

20,100

19,000

17,800

16,700

15,600

21,564,622

30,888,800

29,808,400

30,446,600

31,194,600

32,001,200

32,868,000

33,735,700

34,610,100

Supplemental Documents, Total
Form 1040-X, Total
Paper Form 1040-X
Electronic Form 1040-X*****
Form 4868, Total

2,630,645

4,851,800

3,703,900

3,474,100

3,358,800

3,248,600

3,220,600

3,192,700

3,164,700

2,567,798

3,336,100

2,171,400

1,924,800

1,744,900

1,570,200

1,453,400

1,354,500

1,265,600

62,847

1,515,700

1,532,500

1,549,300

1,613,800

1,678,400

1,767,200

1,838,100

1,899,100
18,298,000

10,644,513

15,457,700

15,463,500

15,985,300

16,477,300

16,935,200

17,390,600

17,844,600

Paper Form 4868

1,399,230

4,531,900

3,451,400

3,059,900

2,809,200

2,521,500

2,262,600

2,018,700

1,773,700

Electronic Form 4868

16,524,300

9,245,283

10,925,800

12,012,100

12,925,300

13,668,200

14,413,700

15,128,000

15,825,900

Form 1120-X

14,174

15,400

15,800

16,100

16,400

16,700

17,100

17,400

17,700

Form 5558

48,639

675,500

574,600

551,000

549,400

583,200

586,600

592,400

603,200

7,728,992

8,982,900

9,183,500

9,573,600

9,963,600

10,353,700

10,743,700

11,133,800

11,523,800

931,655

1,371,600

1,331,900

1,293,200

1,254,500

1,215,800

1,177,000

1,138,300

1,099,600

6,797,337

7,611,200

7,851,600

8,280,400

8,709,100

9,137,900

9,566,700

9,995,400

10,424,200

954,900

1,002,700

Form 7004, Total
Paper Form 7004
Electronic Form 7004
Form 8868, Total
Paper Form 8868
Electronic Form 8868

497,659

905,400

867,200

846,600

829,100

863,700

909,400

43,063

341,100

298,000

272,500

241,000

243,100

256,300

269,400

283,100

454,596

564,400

569,200

574,000

588,100

620,600

653,100

685,600

719,600

(5)

Table 2. Selected Fiscal Year Return Filing Estimates by Business Operating Division (BOD), 2021 –2028
Type of Return/BOD

Individual Income Tax, Total
Small Business/Self-Employed
Wage and Investment
Corporation Income Tax, Total

Projected

Actual—
FY 2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

156,580,123

159,406,100

159,115,000

161,775,700

163,528,800

165,303,400

167,169,100

2028
(9)

168,972,100

170,759,900

40,990,333

45,010,700

44,937,900

45,689,400

46,184,500

46,685,700

47,212,600

47,721,800

48,226,700

115,589,790

114,395,400

114,177,000

116,086,300

117,344,300

118,617,700

119,956,500

121,250,200

122,533,100

6,841,771

7,296,300

7,453,700

7,510,000

7,562,100

7,612,500

7,660,900

7,707,200

7,751,200

6,652,769

7,095,800

7,239,300

7,294,600

7,345,700

7,395,200

7,442,700

7,488,100

7,531,200

Large Business and International

180,207

190,500

203,900

205,000

206,000

207,000

207,900

208,900

209,800

Tax Exempt/Government Entities

8,795

10,000

10,400

10,400

10,400

10,300

10,300

10,300

10,200

4,470,095

4,578,200

4,806,100

5,002,900

5,211,700

5,429,000

5,551,400

5,662,800

5,776,800

Small Business/Self-Employed

Partnership Returns, Total
Small Business/Self-Employed

4,184,860

4,286,000

4,499,400

4,683,700

4,879,200

5,082,600

5,197,100

5,301,400

5,408,200

Large Business and International

284,858

291,700

306,300

318,800

332,100

346,000

353,800

360,900

368,100

Tax Exempt/Government Entities

377

400

400

400

400

500

500

500

500

28,002,543

34,148,600

33,195,600

32,386,100

32,564,900

32,736,500

32,904,700

33,071,300

33,241,400
30,245,400

Employment Tax, Total
Small Business/Self-Employed

25,503,882

31,050,800

30,187,700

29,463,400

29,626,900

29,783,800

29,937,600

30,089,900

Large Business and International

738,416

897,900

872,400

850,900

855,100

859,000

862,900

866,800

870,700

Tax Exempt/Government Entities

1,760,245

2,199,900

2,135,600

2,071,700

2,082,900

2,093,600

2,104,200

2,114,600

2,125,300

905,722

1,102,300

1,108,600

1,117,000

1,125,400

1,133,900

1,142,300

1,150,800

1,159,300

803,914

962,400

967,900

975,200

982,600

989,900

997,300

1,004,700

1,012,100
101,500

Excise, Total
Small Business/Self-Employed
Large Business and International

72,616

96,500

97,000

97,800

98,500

99,300

100,000

100,700

Tax Exempt/Government Entities

29,192

43,400

43,700

44,000

44,300

44,700

45,000

45,300

45,700

1,358,305

1,746,100

1,838,200

1,803,400

1,840,500

1,877,600

1,916,500

1,957,300

1,999,900

1,358,305

1,746,100

1,838,200

1,803,400

1,840,500

1,877,600

1,916,500

1,957,300

1,999,900

881,396

936,500

938,800

941,200

961,100

964,200

985,400

980,700

989,300

881,396

936,500

938,800

941,200

961,100

964,200

985,400

980,700

989,300

Exempt Organization, Total
Tax Exempt/Government Entities
Employee Plans, Forms 5500, 5500EZ, and 5500SF
Tax Exempt/Government Entities

NOTES: Detail may not add to total due to rounding. See Table Notes page for definitions of "Type of Return/BOD."
SOURCE: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division, Spring 2021 Publication 6292.

(6)

Table 3. Accuracy Measures for U.S. Forecasts of Major Return Categories—Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE)
and Number of Overprojections for the Four Most Recent Projection Cycles
Projection Error on Forecasts for:
Item

Grand Total—Selected Returns *

Calendar Year
2020 Actual *
(thousands)

1 Year
Ahead
N=4

2 Years
Ahead
N=4

3 Years
Ahead
N=4

4 Years
Ahead
N=4

5 Years
Ahead
N=4

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

1.76%

2.22%

1.86%

2.37%

2.74%

3

2

3

4

4

8.21%

11.69%

10.70%

14.84%

15.85%

2

3

4

4

4

0.94%

1.84%

2.13%

1.85%

1.54%

2

2

1

1

1

1.18%

1.43%

1.50%

2.50%

2.84%

2

3

4

4

4

5.83%

8.62%

10.04%

13.78%

17.07%

3

2

4

4

4

0.69%

1.52%

1.67%

1.20%

1.56%

1

2

3

1

1

2.84%

2.46%

2.57%

3.44%

3.94%

3

3

4

4

4

12.90%

19.60%

21.41%

20.40%

19.34%

3

2

2

2

4

2.03%

1.67%

1.83%

2.66%

2.58%

2

3

4

4

4

6.98%

9.07%

10.12%

16.11%

18.86%

2

3

4

4

4

3.66%

4.60%

5.32%

7.38%

7.19%

2

3

4

4

4

1.73%

2.73%

2.58%

4.63%

6.62%

3

2

1

1

1

2.38%

3.73%

3.80%

5.05%

5.11%

3

1

2

1

1

3.44%

4.66%

4.72%

4.58%

3.70%

2

1

2

2

2

9.00%

13.01%

12.46%

12.99%

16.97%

3

3

3

4

4

1.17%

3.12%

2.63%

2.09%

2.45%

2

2

2

1

1

246,507

MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Grand Total—Paper

51,890

MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Grand Total—E-file

194,618

MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Total Primary—Selected Returns *

223,206

MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Primary Total—Paper

45,144

MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Primary Total—E-file

178,062

MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Individual Total

145,211

MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Individual Total—Paper

9,095

MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Individual Total—E-file

136,116

MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Individual Estimated Tax

17,565

MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Fiduciary Total

2,831

MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Partnership Total

4,115

MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Corporation Total

6,721

MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Employment Total

27,541

MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Exempt Organization Total

1,245

MAPE
Number of Overprojections
Excise Total
MAPE
Number of Overprojections

1,020

*Some actuals shown in this table may differ from official counts reported elsewhere because they exclude certain return series only recently projected and whose accuracy cannot yet be evaluated.
SOURCE: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income Division, 2021 Publication 6292.

(7)

Table Notes
•	 Detail may not add to total due to rounding.
•	 Projected return counts are rounded to the nearest hundred; therefore, counts of 49 or fewer
are rounded to 0. However, some forms may report zero filings because they are associated
with only selected areas, or because their filing options were recently established or eliminated.
•	 Actual and projected return counts for the major categories are based on IRS Master File
processing, as recorded in the electronic versions of the Report of Returns Posted to the IRS
Master Files.
Table 1:
•	 “Grand Total” is the sum of “Total Primary Returns” and “Supplemental Documents.” The “Total
Primary Returns” category is the sum of all forms shown in the table, excluding “Supplemental
Documents.”
•	 “Individual Income Tax, Total” is the sum of paper and electronic Forms 1040, 1040-SP, 1040SR, 1040-NR, 1040-NR-EZ, 1040-PR, 1040-SS, and 1040-C. Forms 1040-SP ( Declaración
de Impuestos de los Estados Unidos Sobre los Ingresos Personales) and Form 1040-SR
(U.S. Tax Return for Seniors) are new individual form types. More information about these new
forms can be found in Publication 6187, Calendar Year Projections of Individual Returns by
Major Processing Categories.
•	 “Individual Estimated Tax, Form 1040-ES” includes both paper and electronic Form 1040-ES.
Various return categories, such as Form 1040-ES and other business and individual returns,
include line items to account for alternative tax-filing methods. The “paper-only” components
can be derived by subtracting the electronic counts from their respective return totals.
•	 “Fiduciary, Form 1041, Total” includes both paper and electronic Form 1041.
•	 “Fiduciary Estimated Tax, Form 1041-ES” is the Estimated Income Tax for Estates and Trusts.
•	 “Partnership, Forms 1065/1065-B, Total” includes both paper and electronic Forms 1065 and
1065-B.
•	 “Corporation Income Tax, Total” includes Forms 1120 (paper and electronic), 1120-C, 1120-F
(paper and electronic), 1120-H, 1120-FSC, 1120-L, 1120-ND, 1120-PC, 1120-REIT, 1120-RIC,
1120-SF, and 1120-S (paper and electronic). Form 1120-POL volumes are reported separately
under the forms for “Political Organizations.” Form 1120-IC-DISC is not included in these corporation projections.
•	 “Form 2553” is the Election by a Small Business Corporation (to file Form 1120-S).
•	 “Form 1066” is the U.S. Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduit (REMIC) Income Tax
Return.
•	 “Estate” includes Forms 706, 706-NA, 706-GS(D), and 706-GS(T).
•	 “Gift, Form 709” is the United States Gift (and Generation-Skipping Transfer) Tax Return.
•	 “Employment Tax, Total” includes paper and electronic Forms 940, 940-EZ, 940-PR, 941,
941-PR, 941-SS, 943, 943-PR, 943-SS, 944, 945, and CT-1. CT-2 is excluded since the return
counts were only available on the non-master file.
(8)

•	 “Form 1042” is the Annual Withholding Tax Return for U.S. Source Income of Foreign Persons. This form is assigned to the International area. It is sometimes considered an employment tax return but is listed separately here.
•	 “Exempt Organizations, Total” includes Forms 990 (paper and electronic), 990-EZ (paper and
electronic), 990-N (only available electronically), 990-PF (paper and electronic), 990-T (paper
and electronic), 4720 (paper and electronic), and 5227. Beginning in Calendar Year 2021, the
Form 990 series must be filed electronically. Temporary waivers are available for small business filers.
•	 “Form 1041-A” is the U.S. Information Return, Trust Accumulation of Charitable Amounts.
•	 “Government Entities/Bonds” includes Forms 8038, 8038-CP, 8038-G, 8038-GC, 8038-T,
8038-TC, and 8328.
•	 “Political Organizations, Total” includes Forms 1120-POL (paper and electronic), 8871 (only
available electronically), and 8872 (paper and electronic). Beginning in CY 2021, Form 8872
must be filed electronically. Temporary waivers will be available for small business filers.
•	 “Excise, Total” includes Forms 11-C, 720 (paper and electronic) 730, 2290 (paper and electronic), and 8849 (paper and electronic).
•	 “Form 5330” is the Return of Excise Taxes Related to Employee Benefit Plans.
•	 “Form 5500-EZ” is the Annual Return for One-Participant (Owners and Their Spouses) Retirement Plan.
•	 “Form 8752” is the Required Payment or Refund Under Section 7519.
•	 “Supplemental Documents” consists mainly of applications for extensions of time to file and filings of amended tax returns, which include Forms 1040-X (paper and electronic), 4868 (paper
and electronic), 1120-X, 5558, 7004 (paper and electronic), and 8868 (paper and electronic).
In August 2020, the IRS began allowing taxpayers to file Form 1040-X electronically.
Table 2:
•	 Individual filers classified as “Small Business/Self-Employed” reflect those taxpayers filing a
Form 1040 return with a Schedule C, Schedule F, Schedule E, and/or Form 2106 attached, or
with mailing addresses or forms considered “International.” All other individual filers are classified as “Wage and Investment.”
•	 In general, corporation filers (Form 1120 series returns including Form 1120-S) and partnership filers are classified as “Large Business and International” if their reported total assets are
$10 million or more. Corporation and partnership returns, with assets below $10 million, are
generally classified as “Small Business/Self-Employed.” However, there are also some partnership and corporation returns classified as part of the “Tax Exempt/Government Entities”
operating division.
•	 Nonprofit organizations, pension plan filers, tribal authorities, and governmental units comprise the “Tax Exempt/Government Entities” classification.
•	 “Employee Plans” returns include paper and electronic Forms 5500, 5500-EZ, and 5500-SF.
Counts by operating division in this table are based primarily upon the IRS Master File “BOD
indicator.” This indicator is a single, point-in-time, taxpayer-level identifier (in contrast to a
return-by-return identifier).
(9)

Projection Publication Series
IRS Publication
Number

Typical Updates

Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United
States

6292

Spring & Fall

Calendar Year Projections of Information and
Withholding Documents for the United States and
IRS Campuses

6961

Summer

Calendar Year Return Projections for the ­United
States and IRS Campuses

6186

Fall

Calendar Year Projections of Individual Returns
by Major Processing Categories

6187

Fall

Calendar Year Return Projections by State

6149

Winter

Title

These publications are available electronically as noted on page iii of this
report at www.irs.gov/statistics.